2017年 08月 24日

Melbourne population predictions blown away by the boom

Experts warn that repeated failures by planners to predict Melbourne’s massive population growth risks causing shortages of maternity and childcare services in the city’s outer suburbs.

Research by the Urban Development Institute of Australia as well as Australia’s largest property advisory firm, Charter Kramer Keck, has found that figures compiled for the state government’s “Victoria in Future” reports have been repeatedly underestimated when compared with actual Australian Bureau of Statistics figures.

Victoria’s Auditor-General called on the Andrews government yesterday to review its planning and forecasting procedures in light of the research findings.

It acknowledged the gaps in a report examining the state’s ability to effectively plan for population growth and provide maternity and childcare services.

“For a number of years, VIF’s population projections have significantly understated the actual pace of population growth, particularly in locations experiencing rapid population increases, partly due to the unprecedented growth in overseas migration,” the report read.

“Underestimates of population growth contribute to the considerable pressure on birthing services to meet rising demand in a timely way.

“While population forecasts are inherently estimates, continued underestimation suggests a need to review the VIF methodology and assumptions, including how frequently they are updated.”

The report found planning for the delivery of maternity and childcare services in rapidly growing areas on Melbourne’s urban fringe needed to be vastly improved or mothers would not be able to give birth at local hospitals or find local kindergartens for their children.

Victoria is undergoing one of its biggest booms, with 146,600 people moving to the state last year, according to the ABS, the highest growth rate of all states.

In the year to June last year, Melbourne grew by 126,175 people, making it the Australian capital with the largest growth rate for the 15th year in a row.

The ABS predicts that if high migration, fertility and life expectancy rates continue, Melbourne will overtake Sydney as the nation’s biggest city by 2036 and hit nine million people by 2050.